Health & Fitness
Patch Blog: Glendale Home Values Report October 2011
Kendyl Young, an experienced realtor and avid blogger, outlines current business trends and what they might mean to our real estate market in the near future.
Click on this link, Glendale Home Values, to see the original post and video presentation.
Home Values in Glendale for October 2011 is mostly a continuation of last month's report with one notable exception… but we'll get to that in a moment.
For Sale vs. Sold
Inventory continues its slide downward, falling for the fourth straight month. In fact, inventory levels are off by 51 percent from a year ago. Buyers have less than half the number of homes to choose from. No wonder they are a little stressed out.
Find out what's happening in Montrose-La Crescentawith free, real-time updates from Patch.
And the buyers want to buy. Last month I said pending sale levels were on a gentle rise. This month the number of pending sales skyrocketed by nearly 40 percent from last month and 63 percent higher than last year. The number of sales, however, fell by 22 percent and the number of closings in October was only half the number of openings. This shows how difficult it is to actually close a sale.
What does all of this mean? Why is inventory so low? It seems simple- homeowners won't sell at today's prices. I fear, however, that the reason is more complicated and is involved with the Shadow Inventory - but I will get to that in a moment.
Find out what's happening in Montrose-La Crescentawith free, real-time updates from Patch.
Is it a buyers market or a seller's?
Long time readers might remember that our Months Supply of Inventory (the number of months it will take to sell all of our homes at the current rate of sales), took a dramatic fall from January to May. Since then we have seen a slow, but steady, rise in our month's supply. Our current supply is 4.2 months, solid neutral territory, with neither the buyer nor the seller in control.
What about prices?
Our average price per square foot is a reasonable measurement of value as it tends to even out the differences in size and price range. We have been on a bit of a roller coaster since March, but the trend line over the last year is mostly flat, supporting the MSI trend of a neutral market.
So, what's this "Shadow Inventory"?
Shadow Inventory refers to the number of homes that are in some sort of distress but are not yet available for sale. An example would be a homeowner late on their payments or a bank foreclosed home that is not available for sale.
The problem is dramatic in Glendale. There are twice as many homes in the shadow inventory as there are on the market right now.
And now you know the reason why our inventory is low. All the normal "life changes" listings are in the shadow inventory. That inventory is building up, everyday, and the dam is eventually going to burst.
Anyone care to guess what will happen then?
Kendyl Young blogs daily at www.KendylsOpenHouse.com and she covers Glendale Home Values, La Canada Flintridge Home Values and La Crescenta Home Values. You call or text her at 818-396-7588 or email kendyl@kendylyoung.com. Have amusing tweets? @kendyl
